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When to Pick

Pick on trump, not points. At five-handed: five or more trump is a pick; four trump is a pick at call an ace unless all four are plain diamonds, and at jack of diamonds when one is a queen and none is the J♦; three trump usually needs two queens; and two trump is a pick only when both are queens and you sit late. The later your seat, the lighter you can pick.

Count the trump, then weigh them

Six small diamonds and six cards headed by both black queens are both “six trump,” and they are not the same hand. A quick way to weigh them is the tally clubs use for the schwanzer: 3 for a queen, 2 for a jack, 1 for any other trump, fail cards nothing. The Q♣ J♥ A♦ 9♦ hand counts 3 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 7.

Trump in handCall an aceJack of diamonds
5 or morePickPick
4Pick, unless all four are plain diamonds (tally 5 or more)Pick with a queen and without the J♦; otherwise only on a tally of 8
3Pick on a tally of 7 or more (two queens, or a queen and two jacks)Pick with two queens and without the J♦; otherwise only on a tally of 8
2Two queens only, by seat (below)Two queens only, from the second seat on
0 or 1PassPass

In the last two seats (at five-handed, once three players have passed) every tally line comes down by one.

This is the picking grid our sound computer players use. It started as a grid drawn up by players who play every week, and our own measurements, picking and passing the same hand from the same seat and playing both out, landed in the same place. A few of the numbers behind it, per hand picked:

HandPicking instead of passing
4 trump, no queens, jack of diamondsabout 5 units worse
4 trump, no queens, call an aceabout half a unit worse
3 trump, no queensabout 2 units worse
2 trump, no queensabout 4 units worse
2 trump, one queenabout 2 units worse

The jack-of-diamonds game is stricter because the picker cannot choose a partner: the jack may be in the picker’s own hand or in the blind, and four trump alone against four is a bad bet.

Two queens and nothing else

The hardest hand to judge. At call an ace, picking minus passing, by seat from the dealer’s left:

Two queensSeat 1Seat 2Seat 3Seat 4Dealer
Both black (Q♣ Q♠)−0.05+0.79+1.07+2.85+6.11
One black, one red−1.39−0.16+0.39+1.55+4.19
Both red (Q♥ Q♦)−1.23−1.40−0.94−0.27+2.13

So: never from the first seat; from the second, only both black; from the third and fourth, not both red; the dealer, any two. Fail aces and the table’s all-pass rule nudge it further. At doubler and leaster tables, a mixed pair from the third seat measured as a pass, while at a schwanzer table, where passing a trump hand costs you directly, it was a pick. At jack of diamonds, two queens from the second seat on measured as a pick, and a red pair with no fail ace as a pass.

About the numbers: they come from our own simulations, in which our strongest computer players play the same deals both ways and the results are compared. A unit is one defender’s base payment. They are measured at five-handed with the live table rules, against strong opponents, and they are averages, not guarantees for any one hand.

Seat matters more than most players think

Forcing a pick and a pass from the same position and playing both out, the value of picking rose steadily with every seat that had already passed. Four trump at jack of diamonds measured as a coin flip in the first three seats and a clear pick in the last two; three trump at call an ace crossed from pass to pick right at the end of the table. That is the old advice to “pick light on the end,” arriving from the cards themselves. The dealer has watched four players decline, so the blind is the last chance anybody gets.

Points come second

Fail aces help a hand that already has trump: they are tricks you can win without spending a trump, or points to bury. They do not make up for missing trump. A hand of three fail aces and two small trump is a defensive hand. Hands that look like picks and are not are on when to pass.

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